Trail Conditions March 22, 2026

I’ve been getting a lot of questions about when the snowpack will be cleared enough to do the trail. Unfortunately, it will be much sooner than normal.

As outlined in the FAQs and elsewhere, normally the season for the SF2T Trail would be from June 1st until about mid October. But this year? Let’s toss “normally” from our vocabulary. And let’s not get into the weeds about snowpack like this increasingly becoming the new normal (though it may well be).

Much of northern New Mexico has zero percent of its median snowpack. He’s what the current satellite snowpack data is. I got this from SnowForecast.com.

This is very similar to what’s shown in the “Snow Depth” layer in Gaia from “NOAA NOHRSC SNODAS”, shown below:

I have already gotten a report from a trailrunner that he was able to go from “Windsor 254 to Holy Ghost/windsor (from pecos side)”. He said the only snow was in the shade.

So does that mean you could go all the way through now, in late March? Possibly, but I give you 50/50 odds that you’ll run into a potentially hazardous stretch of ice at some point. Snow and ice do not melt evenly, of course. Nice level trails can be clear, but certain canyons, slopes, etc, may be hazardous or straight-up impassable. I continue to hold tight to my goal of keeping the Search and Rescue teams at home, so I am not recommending you go now. But… you will probably be able to do the Santa Fe to Taos Trail all the way through by late April.

I will feel like the way is officially clear when I get a report from somebody who’s gone:

• up from Santa Barbara Campground, over the Santa Barbara Divide, and made it all the way to Truchas Lakes and back.
• up Indian Creek Trail / 27 (at Santa Barbara Campground), over Ripley Point and down into Agua Piedra.

That part of Indian Creek Trail (aka “Trail 27”) is a tough stretch of trail, and the snow can be deep. Actually, per the first satellite image, the part of the route heading up to Ripley Point, after the tight curve on Indian Creek Canyon Trail, is where the deepest snow is still left. Be careful on that section of trail. Even without snow it can be hard to follow. That section of trail is the #1 spot where people tend to get tired and have medical issues.

Once we have reports of people being able to do those two sections, the route is probably clear enough to do. Will it be pleasant to do? No. But it seems like a few people are just hell-bent to do the trail as soon as possible.

Take note that the Forest Roads in Carson don’t – normally – open until May 1st. And many campsites don’t open until May 1st either. While it is possible that the Forest Service *might* decide to open early because of these early spring conditions, I think that’s unlikely. But we’ll see. I’ll check in with them about it this week.

---

Having just been as strategic and logical as possible, I will now tell you I am heartbroken over these snowpack conditions. I remember 2018. You could almost feel the trees aching for water. Their leaves had a gray tinge. We are months ahead of that, but it is likely coming. The too-early spring throws me off at some deep level, like I’m confused, or can’t quite tell which way is north. Or maybe it’s just denial. All the people clamoring to know how early they can go bothers me, too, to be honest. You shouldn’t be able to do the thru-hike in late April. For that to be possible is not a good thing.

We are going to be incredibly vulnerable to fire, and fires have already started in the grasslands. The route of the thru-hike may not necessarily burn, but that’s not much consolation. The entire West is set up for a disastrous fire season. The situation is worse than it had to be because of cuts to the Forest Service. And there are probably going to be multiple large-scale fires, so the few firefighting resources we have will be spread even thinner.

All that brings up the obvious next question: Will the woods be closed? No way to know, but they definitely could be. The Forest Service might close the woods even before a fire, simply due to perilously low humidity.

To give you an idea of how much of a tinder box it can be around here when it gets this dry: The authorities often ask people to make sure they don’t have any chains dangling. A spark from a dragging chain can be enough to start a grass fire.